Mizuho upgraded Mid-America Apartment Communities to Outperform and downgraded {{8135|AvalonBay Communities}} to Neutral, saying slowing rent growth in coastal cities contrasts with improving conditions in Sunbelt markets.
The bank said second-quarter results for apartment real estate investment trusts largely met expectations, with market rents rising from the first quarter but at a slower rate than in 2024.
Many companies trimmed full-year rent forecasts after weaker-than-expected spring leasing.
Mizuho sees {{20151|MAA}} benefiting from falling supply in its core Sunbelt markets, which it said should support rent improvement through late 2025 and accelerate revenue and funds-from-operations growth in 2026.
It also cited MAA’s low leverage and valuation discounts to peers and historical averages in raising its price target to $150.
AvalonBay, by contrast, faces slowing growth due to weakness in its Los Angeles portfolio and added pressure in Washington, Boston and Seattle. Mizuho said the company’s suburban properties are struggling against tougher year-on-year comparisons and lingering drag from return-to-office trends.
Lease-up delays and higher construction costs could also weigh on returns from its development pipeline. The price target was cut to $199 from prior estimates.
Apartment REITs have underperformed the broader real estate sector this year, lagging the RMZ index by about 9.3 percentage points year-to-date.
Mizuho expects Sunbelt and San Francisco markets to outperform into year-end as new supply eases and comparisons to last year’s rents become more favorable.
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