J.P. Morgan placed Aegon (AS:AEGN) on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of its Capital Markets Day on Dec. 10, saying a potential decision to re-domicile to the United States could unlock “substantial SOTP upside.”
The brokerage raised its price target on the insurer to €8.50 from €7.65 and reiterated its "overweight" rating.
“We place the stock on Positive Catalyst Watch into its CMD,” the analysts said. “A transition to the US over the next 2-3 years could focus the market more closely on Aegon’s SOTP, which we see as giving material valuation upside potential in the shares.”
The Americas contribute about 60% of Aegon’s operational capital generation and group revenues.
J.P. Morgan said shifting domicile, headquarters and primary listing to the U.S. would align the business with its largest market, simplify accounting under U.S.
GAAP and reduce barriers to cash remittances. “Most importantly for us, and the focus of this report, is that a transition to the US … should no longer act as a drag on the value of this business,” the note said.
Aegon sold its Dutch operations to ASR, making continued supervision by the Dutch central bank unfeasible.
The company moved its regulatory base to Bermuda, but J.P. Morgan described that step as “a stepping-stone to a full shift of domicile to the US.”
The brokerage’s revised valuation reflects a €8.52 sum-of-the-parts estimate for 2026, or about 8x adjusted earnings.
The Americas segment was valued at €7.4 billion, the UK at €1.7 billion, International at €1 billion, Asset Management at €1.2 billion and Aegon’s stake in ASR at €2.9 billion. J.P. Morgan applied a 7x multiple to U.S. earnings, noting that “ ~85% of profits in 2026E coming from the core Strategic Assets business.”
The analysts forecast adjusted earnings per share of €1.08 in 2025, up from €0.52 in 2024, with growth moderating to €1.09 in 2026 and €1.31 in 2027.
Return on equity is projected at 22.2% in 2025, 19.9% in 2026 and 21.1% in 2027. Dividend per share is expected to rise from €0.35 in 2024 to €0.46 in 2027, with a yield of 6.8%.
J.P. Morgan said it expects Aegon to announce a €1.4 billion share buyback in 2026 as it reduces holding company cash to about €1 billion.
The brokerage also pointed to the likely disposal of the remaining ASR stake and possible exits from UK and international businesses as management refocuses on the U.S. market.
“A relocation to the US also creates an opportunity for Aegon to reconsider its ‘International’ strategy,” the brokerage said, adding that management could simplify its investor proposition by reviewing the role of asset management and other non-U.S. units.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/aegon-placed-on-jp-morgans-positive-catalyst-watch-ahead-of-possible-us-move-4250872
