Mixed iPhone wait times following the iPhone 17 launch are clouding visibility into real demand, according to UBS Evidence Lab.
While Pro and Pro Max models are seeing delays broadly in line with or shorter than last year, extended waits for the base model and the absence of the new Air variant in China suggest that product mix, rather than pure consumer appetite, is influencing availability.
“On balance, wait times in the US suggest demand for the Pro and Pro Max is more muted than the 16,” UBS analysts said, adding that year-over-year comparisons are “more meaningful in determining underlying demand.”
In the United States, the iPhone 17 Pro Max faces waits of about 26 days, compared with 27 days for the iPhone 16 Pro Max and 39 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
The 17 Pro sits at 12 days, shorter than the 18 days for the 16 Pro and 23 days for the 15 Pro.
The newly launched iPhone 17 Air averages nine days, nearly identical to the 16 Plus at eight days. The 17 Base, however, stands out with 13 days, up from eight for the 16 Base and nine for the 15 Base.
Europe and Japan show similar dynamics. In Europe, the 17 Pro Max’s wait holds at 24 days, matching the 16 Pro Max but below the 37 days seen two years ago.
The 17 Base averages 17 days, more than double the 16 Base at eight days. In Japan, the 17 Pro Max sits at 25 days, just under the 28 days for the 16 Pro Max, while the 17 Base extends to 24 days, well above the 15 days recorded a year earlier.
China tells a different story. With the iPhone 17 Air not yet approved by regulators, comparisons are skewed.
Still, wait times for the 17 Pro and Pro Max there hover around 25 days, seven to 10 days longer than a year ago.
The 17 Base is also showing a more than two-week increase compared with the 16 Base.
UBS flagged that changes in Apple’s launch lineup are distorting the picture. The iPhone 17 cycle began with seven models listed on Apple’s website, compared with nine at the same point last year.
The 17 Base also holds its $799 starting price but now begins at 256GB of storage, up from 128GB. These adjustments, the firm said, could be shifting customer behavior.
“At the low-end, the Base’s wait time of ~13 days vs ~8 last year could suggest consumers are spinning down the price curve given the higher price points of the three other models, a potential negative for ASPs and GM if the trend continues,” the brokerage said.
UBS added that higher-end demand is holding steady but that year-over-year comparisons remain “distorted” by both lineup and geographic differences.
“Better demand at the high-end but the lack of the Air model makes comparisons a bit tricky,” the analysts said.
With wait times no longer a straightforward demand signal, the firm said model mix is now a key driver of availability across regions.
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