Bernstein analysts said China’s newly launched anti-dumping investigation into U.S. analog chip imports could reshape global market dynamics.
Bernstein explained that the Ministry of Commerce began the probe on Sept. 13, 2025, after a petition by the Jiangsu Semiconductor Industry Association.
“This indicates that China-U.S. geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, accelerating domestic substitution for Analog,” Bernstein wrote.
The investigation is said to focus on Interface and Gate Driver chips, including CAN and RS485 interface transceivers as well as isolated and multi-channel gate driver ICs.
These are “widely used in automotive, industrial, and power electronics applications, serving functions like signal transmission, isolation, and power device control,” the analysts said.
Bernstein estimated exposure for major U.S. suppliers: “TXN has 11.4% revenue exposure, ADI has 7.8%, while ON has 10.2%, among the highest of US vendors.”
Given that China accounts for about 20% of Texas Instruments and Analog Devices revenue, “the real impact to these companies would be LSD at most,” the firm noted.
Bernstein explained that the Ministry cited evidence that from 2022 to 2024, imports of targeted U.S. chips rose 37% while prices fell 52%, allegedly harming local industry.
The probe, scheduled for one year with a possible six-month extension, is expected to assess imports from 2024 and industry damage dating back to 2022.
Bernstein warned that the precedent is significant.
“Similar investigation in solar-grade polysilicon resulted in up to 57% tariff… later the local solar industry quickly ramp up to dominate the sector.”
Domestic firms such as Silergy, Novosense, 3Peak, SG Micro and Joulwatt may benefit, while U.S. players face downside risk, according to Bernstein. They added that Japanese and European companies, including Renesas and Infineon, “will indirectly benefit,” the analysts added.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/chinas-tariff-investigation-could-shift-analog-chip-market-dynamics-bernstein-4239235
