J.P. Morgan initiated Zurich Airport to “overweight” and cut Aena to “underweight” in a new assessment of European airport operators, citing free cash flow strength at Zurich and a prolonged capex cycle at Aena.
In its latest sector analysis, J.P. Morgan set a December 2026 price target of CHF 270 for Zurich Airport, representing about 14% upside.
The brokerage flagged Zurich’s free cash flow yields at the higher end of the sector, with earnings growth expected to accelerate as Noida Airport in India begins operations.
Guidance indicates Noida’s 2029 EBITDA could equal about 18% of Zurich’s 2025 group EBITDA.
J.P. Morgan said Zurich’s traffic outlook is favorable compared with peers and noted strong near-term momentum.
It cited regulatory risk tied to tariff cuts and execution risk at Noida but said expectations were now at reasonable levels.
The brokerage assumed a 5% tariff cut in Zurich and found that a 10% reduction would lower 2027 EBITDA and free cash flow by less than 4% to 6%.
Aena was downgraded to Underweight with a December 2026 price target of €21, implying about 8% downside.
J.P. Morgan said Aena faces a prolonged period of elevated capital spending under the DORA III regulatory plan, with Barcelona’s expansion extending into the DORA IV period.
The brokerage said free cash flow would no longer be sufficient to cover dividend payments in the coming years without raising debt. It also pointed to slowing traffic trends and the risk of operational disruption from large construction projects.
The brokerage described the balance of risk and reward at Aena as the least favorable among the group, particularly after strong share price performance in recent years. Its target was lowered from €23 previously.
Elsewhere, J.P. Morgan reiterated an “overweight” rating on Aéroports de Paris (ADP) with a December 2026 price target of €128, or 16% upside.
The analysts said potential catalysts include political clarity in France and a proposal from the European Regulators’ Association.
For Fraport, the operator of Frankfurt Airport, the bank maintained a Neutral stance. It raised its December 2026 price target to €77, or 5% upside, after updating its valuation of Lima operations and reflecting yield changes.
J.P. Morgan said it remains constructive on the company but is awaiting more visibility on capital expenditures and free cash flow in 2026 and 2027.
J.P. Morgan reiterated its preference for toll roads over airports in the broader infrastructure sector. It identified Ferrovial as the best positioned infrastructure name but said Zurich Airport stands out within airports.
The brokerage also noted Zurich’s premium status among Swiss companies and highlighted the airport’s longer-term traffic growth outlook compared with European peers.
For Aena, the downgrade centered on the impact of the DORA III plan and the prospect of reduced free cash flow yields, a key part of the company’s financial profile in previous years.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jp-morgan-starts-zurich-airport-cuts-aena-in-european-airports-review-4257104
