JPMorgan has refreshed its European Catalyst Watch list, with the bank’s analysts saying Q3 reporting marks “a pivotal point” in the fiscal year (FY) calendar as companies recalibrate guidance and set early expectations for 2026.
The bank’s models sit roughly 2% above consensus for Insurance and Pharmaceuticals, but sharply below for cyclical areas. Metals, Mining, and Steel are 8% under, while Luxury & Sporting Goods and Chemicals are each 4% below.
JPMorgan cautioned that Chemicals and Paper & Packaging in particular face “high bars” into year-end, whereas Insurance, Utilities, Pharma and Banks have relatively easier set-ups.
Luxury groups were described as being in “reset mode,” with difficult Q4 comparisons and subdued Chinese demand weighing on the outlook. In consumer sectors, Food and Household Products were seen as better supported, while Beverages continue to face soft trends in the U.S., Latin America and China.
The Wall Street firm refreshed its Catalyst Watch, adding 17 names and bringing the total to 30. Industrials accounted for the largest share with 12, followed by Materials with six and Financials with five.
Positive Catalyst Watch additions included BMW, Beazley, Endesa, Generali, ICG PLC (LON:ICGIN), IMCD, Leonardo, MTU Aero Engines, Munich Re, Orange, Repsol, Rolls-Royce and Tele2.
Among the biggest changes, JPMorgan said Beazley concerns on the combined ratio were overdone, estimating 80.3% for 2H, below company guidance. BMW was also highlighted, with stabilising China momentum and H2 EBIT forecasts 19% above consensus.
Endesa was added on expectations of a clear net income beat, with H2 estimates about 9% ahead of consensus, supported by competitive financing costs and strong gas earnings locked in through hedges.
Repsol was flagged as a beneficiary of a tight diesel market, while MTU Aero Engines was expected to show a strong second half given its track record of beating EBITA guidance. Tele2 was projected to continue delivering estimate beats, driven by pricing and cost savings.
On the negative side, JPMorgan added BASF, DSM-Firmenich, Stora Enso and Adecco. BASF was seen at risk of “material earnings misses or cuts” with adjusted EBITDA 8–9% below consensus.
DSM-Firmenich’s sale of its Animal Nutrition & Health unit could come in below market expectations, adding to pressure.
Stora Enso was placed on negative watch due to a more cautious view on pulp, board prices and maintenance costs, while Adecco’s H2 EBITA was forecast 3% below consensus, with JPMorgan citing margin pressure and execution risks in the Akkodis turnaround.
Capital Markets Day (CMD) season is also seen as a key stretch of the calendar, with Deutsche Bank, Generali, Metso, Munich Re, and Siemens placed on Positive Catalyst Watch into their events. Lufthansa and Stora Enso were added to the Negative list ahead of their CMDs.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jpmorgan-warns-european-companies-face-tough-earnings-comparisons-in-h2-2025-4236449
