The U.S. Supreme Court is likely to rule on the legality of Trump’s tariffs between March and June 2026 after a federal appeals court found the duties unlawful but left them in place pending appeal.
The Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit upheld a lower court’s view that Trump exceeded his powers under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) when he imposed reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada.
The Justice Department said it will ask the Supreme Court to review the case.
“We expect a final decision between March and June 2026. In the meantime, tariffs stay in place, and so we expect a muted market reaction,” analysts at Barclays said.
The tariffs at stake represent roughly half of total U.S. tariff revenue this fiscal year, and could account for as much as 70% in 2026.
They include a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico, a 20% fentanyl-linked tariff on China, and a 10% reciprocal tariff on China. By contrast, existing sectoral tariffs under Section 232 on steel, aluminum, autos and copper remain unaffected.
The appeals court’s 7-4 decision is paused while the Supreme Court decides whether to hear the case. If the justices agree, oral arguments could take place early next year with a ruling by mid-2026.
If the court declines, the appeals ruling would take effect, raising the question of whether tariffs would need to be refunded more broadly to importers.
Barclays noted the administration could rely on other trade authorities, including Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 or Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, to reimpose tariffs, though these would involve more procedure and time.
For now, markets are expected to show little reaction as the tariffs remain in force until the legal process plays out.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/this-is-when-the-us-court-is-likely-to-rule-definitively-on-trump-tariffs-4222648
