The U.K. tax gap, representing the difference between theoretical tax liabilities and actual collections, remains at 5.3%, equivalent to nearly £47 billion in lost tax receipts for 2023/24, according to Deutsche Bank analysis.
As Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares for her second Autumn Budget on November 26, she faces a fiscal hole of approximately £25 billion, based on Deutsche Bank calculations.
The tax gap has remained broadly unchanged as a percentage of theoretical liabilities, with the largest gaps occurring in corporation tax payments from small businesses, excise duties from tobacco, and self-assessment tax receipts from business taxpayers.
Historical trends suggest the Chancellor will likely target this gap to increase revenue. Since 2012, Chancellors have consistently sought to boost tax collection, averaging nearly £1 billion in additional revenue per fiscal event.
Reeves has already announced over £6 billion in tax collection efforts across her first two fiscal events. Deutsche Bank expects the upcoming Autumn Budget to include measures aimed at collecting an additional £1-1.5 billion through enhanced tax collection.
These measures could include adding compliance staff, modernizing HMRC tax receipt systems, or tackling tax fraud as part of the government’s strategy to address the fiscal shortfall.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/uk-tax-gap-remains-at-53-as-chancellor-prepares-for-autumn-budget-4230924
