The level of U.S. employment for the 12 months through March was likely 911,000 roles less than previously estimated, a sharp downward revision which suggests that a slowdown in the American labor market may have begun prior to the announcement of President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs.
Economists had anticipated that the preliminary benchmark employment revision from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period from April 2024 to March 2025 would be lowered by between 400,000 and 1 million jobs. The changes aim to better factor in businesses that may have opened or closed during that time.
Tuesday’s estimate is based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is derived primarily from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers must file with state workforce agencies.
A final benchmark revision will be issued in February 2026 with the publication of the BLS’s employment report for January.
The changes come as the Trump administration has taken aim at the BLS, with the White House dismissing the commissioner of the agency earlier this year following deep revisions to nonfarm payrolls numbers for June and May. Trump accused the commissioner, without citing evidence, of rigging the figures to hurt him politically.
He has since nominated a loyalist to head the BLS, although this appointment has yet to be confirmed.
Analysts have noted that a widespread crackdown on illegal immigration could be contributing to the cooling jobs picture, as well as the rise of artificial intelligence denting demand for certain workers.
A BLS report last week showed that job growth in August was weaker than anticipated and the economy lost jobs for the first time in 4-1/2 years in June. The data all but cemented wagers that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its upcoming policy gathering next week.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-employment-levels-through-march-revised-lower--bls-data-4231656
