Wall Street analysts initiated coverage of Firefly Aerospace, with opinions split between optimism on the company’s growth prospects in the crowded launch sector and caution over technical execution risks.
JP Morgan started Firefly at Overweight with a year-end 2026 price target of $55, calling the company “an emerging small and medium-lift launch provider” positioned to benefit from record satellite production and growing demand for national security missions.
The brokerage highlighted Firefly’s Alpha rocket, the only U.S.-built small vehicle in its class to reach orbit, and its partnership with Northrop Grumman to co-develop a medium-lift rocket, Eclipse, as key growth drivers.
JPM also flagged Firefly’s Elytra spacecraft and Blue Ghost lunar lander as promising businesses, particularly for defense-related applications.
Morgan Stanley was more cautious, beginning at Equal-weight with a $52 price target, citing Firefly’s “discriminating capabilities” but warning that products remain in early stages.
The brokerage pointed to the company’s limited launch track record, six Alpha attempts with two successes and noted that execution of upcoming missions, including Eclipse and Blue Ghost 2 in 2026, will be critical. Its valuation scenarios range widely, from $14 per share in a bear case to $95 in a bull case.
Goldman Sachs initiated with a Neutral rating and $54 target, describing Firefly as a “differentiated offering in a supply-constrained market” but one facing ramp-up and profitability risks.
GS highlighted Firefly’s strong backlog and spacecraft pipeline but said investors may want to wait for proof of consistent launch performance following a recent Alpha anomaly.
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