Aker BP (OL:AKRBP) shares rose over 2% on Monday after the Norwegian oil and gas company reported stronger-than-expected third-quarter production and realized prices.
Net production averaged 414,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) in the quarter, nearly flat from 414.9 kboe/d in the previous quarter and 414.8 kboe/d a year earlier.
Kepler Cheuvreux said production came in about 3% above market expectations and 7% higher than its own estimate.
The brokerage noted this resulted in a positive top-line impact of roughly $400–650 million, or 15–25% above its model.
Net volume sold stood at 396.1 kboe/d, down 4% from 413.9 kboe/d in the second quarter but up 1% from 391.4 kboe/d last year.
Liquids contributed 340.0 kboe/d, a 5% quarterly decline and 1% lower year over year, while natural gas volumes reached 56.1 kboe/d, down 3% sequentially but up 21% from the prior year.
The company reported an underlift of 17.9 kboe/d compared with 1.0 kboe/d in the previous quarter.
Realized prices averaged about $69 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe). Liquids realized at approximately $70 per barrel, higher than the consensus estimate of $67 per barrel, while natural gas averaged $10.9 per thousand cubic feet (mcf), below expectations of $12.3 per mcf.
Liquids prices increased 5% quarter over quarter to $70.3 per boe, while gas prices declined 8% to $63.3 per boe.
Despite the stronger operational results, Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its “Reduce” rating on Aker BP with a target price of NOK135.00.
The brokerage maintained its bearish outlook on oil markets, forecasting potential oversupply through the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026.
It based its valuation on a long-term Brent oil price of $60 per barrel but tactically adjusted it to $50 per barrel, with each $5 movement in Brent affecting fair value by about NOK22 per share.
As of Oct. 3, Aker BP’s share price stood at NOK256.30, implying a potential downside of 47.3% from the target.
The company’s market capitalization was NOK161.9 billion, with a 49% free float. Major shareholders include Aker ASA with 21.16%, BP PLC with 15.87%, and Nemesia S.A.R.L. with 14.38%.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/aker-bp-shares-climb-on-strong-q3-output-price-gains-ahead-of-earnings-4272431
