Morgan Stanley expects TSMC shares to rise in reaction to its third-quarter analyst meeting on October 16, as the chipmaker could lift its full-year revenue guidance on the back of strong demand for artificial intelligence semiconductors.
The bank labeled the stock a Catalyst-Driven Idea. Morgan Stanley said, “We expect TSMC’s share price to rise if it raises full-year revenue guidance again due to strong AI demand. We suggest accumulating ahead of October 16, given stronger overall semi demand and a potential 2026 price hike.”
The bank said that “TSMC may revise up 2025 revenue growth from 30% to 32-34% Y/Y and narrow the previous capex guidance range to close to US$40bn,” citing recent industry checks that suggest fab utilisation “in 4Q25 remains high.”
Analysts expect the company to guide “4Q25 flat revenue in USD, with GM at 57%-59%.”
Morgan Stanley outlined three possible scenarios for next week’s event. In the most bullish case, “TSMC revises up full year USD revenue growth guidance to above 35% Y/Y given robust AI demand,” leading to a “3-5%” share price increase.
Its base case, assigned a 60% probability, expects TSMC to “revise up 2025 revenue guidance to 32-34% Y/Y” and indicate that “wafer price negotiations are going well.” The bank would expect the stock to rise between 0% and 2% in this scenario.
Under a more cautious outcome, where TSMC maintains 30% growth guidance, Morgan Stanley sees downside of “0-5%.”
The analysts said their outlook reflects “stronger overall semi demand and a potential 2026 price hike,” positioning TSMC as one of the best ways to play sustained AI-driven semiconductor growth.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/morgan-stanley-says-buy-tsmc-ahead-of-a-guidance-boost-next-week-4277172
