The introduction of artificial intelligence shopping agents may accelerate online sales growth but create deeper risks for most retailers, according to a recent report from D.A. Davidson & Co.
The brokerage said OpenAI’s September 29 launch of “Instant Checkout” for ChatGPT users marks the start of agentic commerce, where digital agents make purchases on behalf of consumers, and could reshape competition in retail.
The brokerage said near-term effects are limited, with the feature currently allowing only U.S. ChatGPT users to buy directly from Etsy sellers, and Shopify merchants are expected to join soon.
But analysts warned that the technology’s long-term influence could be “game changing.”
Although e-commerce has existed for nearly 30 years, “non-store retail” still accounts for just 28% of total retail sales in the U.S. (excluding autos and gas), and penetration rises by less than 1% each year.
If agentic commerce doubles that growth rate by 2027 or 2028, D.A. Davidson projects online retailing could reach 40% of total sales by 2035.
The potential advantages lie in efficiency. AI agents can streamline product searches, improve recommendations and automatically complete transactions, reducing online cart abandonment.
Analysts said the technology could also enhance auto-replenishment for household goods, where systems anticipate restocking needs more precisely than humans, driving higher sell-throughs.
However, the brokerage outlined several risks. Pricing pressure is the biggest concern,“Agents will likely be trained to search across the web for the best pricing and deals for consumers, which will naturally force down pricing and merchandise margins,” the analysts said.
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