Rich Ross, a senior managing director and head of technical analysis at Evercore ISI, argues that market conditions are increasingly aligned for a powerful extension of the bull cycle, with the S&P 500 tracking toward 7,000 by year-end 2025, 7,400 in early 2026 and potentially 8,000 later next year.
His framework spans rates, currencies, commodities and equities, with the following ten standout trades shaping his 2026 outlook.
S&P 500 upside continues: Ross stays bullish from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives, arguing that falling inflation, yields and energy prices, combined with steeper curves and tighter spreads, create a backdrop supportive of broader market cap expansion across sectors and styles.
Long bonds: Ross expects the United States 10-Year to fall toward a 3.0%–3.6% range, following declines in the 2-year yield, inflation and policy rates. He sees yield curves bull-steepening, a setup he views as constructive for both bonds and equities.
U.S. dollar downside: The strategist targets the US Dollar Index falling toward 90, following what he describes as the worst first-half collapse in 50 years. He sees continued dollar weakness as a major tailwind for global risk assets.
Euro breakout: Ross expects the EUR/USD to break above 1.20, emerging from a 10-year base. He also flags strength in the offshore Chinese yuan and sees the USD/JPY stalling near 160.
Crude oil downside: Crude Oil WTI Futures is projected to move materially lower as it breaks down from a multiyear top. Ross argues that falling oil prices, absent a recession, are historically bullish for equities.
Gasoline collapse: Natural Gas Futures are seen falling toward $2. Ross highlights this as an underappreciated positive for consumers and risk assets.
Gold breakout: XAU/USD is a core bullish call, with Ross targeting 5,400 as technical momentum builds amid dollar weakness and declining yields.
Silver super-cycle: Ross is especially constructive on Silver Futures, calling out a breakout from a 45-year cup-and-handle formation and targeting 100.
Technology leadership: Technology remains the dominant equity trade. Ross argues AI trends are intact despite shaken sentiment, flagging NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) as oversold at support, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) are seen doubling.
Financials, retail and biotech: Ross favors banks, alternative asset managers and payments names, sees retail rebounding as State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT) bottoms, and calls for a biotech breakout, with Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY) targeting 1,400. He expects staples, energy, materials and REITs to lag the broader market in 2026.
source https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-at-8000-gold-at-5400-tesla-to-double-here-are-top-trades-for-2026-4418276
