Wolfe’s forecast is based on several factors, including rising demand for AI computing and partnerships with major developers. The firm estimates that AI company Anthropic could generate about $15.2 billion in AWS-related revenue in 2026 through cloud computing usage, access to Amazon’s Trainium chips and revenue-sharing arrangements.
The analysts also expect contributions tied to OpenAI to expand, though they said the impact from a recently announced $100 billion contract is unlikely to be material until 2027.
Beyond AI partnerships, Wolfe said AWS should benefit from additional data center capacity and steady growth in traditional cloud services. The brokerage expects Amazon to add about six gigawatts of computing capacity each year in 2026 and 2027, supporting new revenue from both AI and core cloud services.
The expansion will require heavy spending. Wolfe estimates Amazon could invest about $1 trillion in capital expenditures between 2024 and 2030, with AWS accounting for most of that spending.
While the investment could weigh on free cash flow in the near term, the firm expects returns on invested capital to stabilize around 2027 and begin improving by 2029 as new infrastructure generates revenue.
source https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/amazon-stock-wolfe-sees-aws-growth-underappreciated-4552743
