The firm expects North American producers to capture stronger export demand and margin expansion across several chemical chains, particularly olefins and polyolefins, where U.S. cost advantages are most pronounced.
Citi said disruptions across the energy and petrochemical supply chain, from upstream LNG plants to downstream crackers in Asia and Europe, could support supply-driven price increases for several months. Its base case assumes two to three quarters of disruption, though the duration of the conflict remains uncertain.
Even if tensions ease quickly, the brokerage said several factors could keep prices elevated, including logistics bottlenecks, higher insurance and freight costs, limited feedstock availability and the time required to safely restart petrochemical plants.
Citi expects polyethylene prices to rise by about 12 cents per pound in the first half before declining later in the year as markets normalize. Under those assumptions, the firm forecasts 2026 EBITDA to rise about 22% for Dow and 32% for LyondellBasell compared with its prior estimates.
source https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dow-lyondellbasell-upgraded-on-higher-margins-amid-to-middle-east-disruption-4557695
