The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of a meeting on September 30, amid recent signs of inflation turning unexpectedly sticky.
But markets will be closely watching comments from Governor Michele Bullock on any signals on future rate cuts, amid some labor market weakness and risks to economic activity.
The RBA is expected to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 3.60%, after cutting the rate by a cumulative 75 basis points so far in 2025.
Expectations for a September hold were furthered chiefly by outsized readings on consumer price index inflation for July and August, which set the stage for a strong third-quarter inflation print.
Australian unemployment remained steady despite a steady cooling in labor growth this year, while economic growth was strong in the second quarter. But the economy still faces risks from trade disruptions and sluggish global commodity demand, which the RBA has repeatedly noted.
ANZ analysts said they expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged in September, with a 25 basis point cut appearing more likely in November. They expect Bullock to maintain the RBA’s data-driven stance on future easing, but warned that recent increases in inflation could draw a more hawkish stance from the RBA governor.
ANZ’s “Big Four” peers– Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and NAB– also expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged in September, although they have differing stances on a November cut.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of a meeting on September 30, amid recent signs of inflation turning unexpectedly sticky.
But markets will be closely watching comments from Governor Michele Bullock on any signals on future rate cuts, amid some labor market weakness and risks to economic activity.
The RBA is expected to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 3.60%, after cutting the rate by a cumulative 75 basis points so far in 2025.
Expectations for a September hold were furthered chiefly by outsized readings on consumer price index inflation for July and August, which set the stage for a strong third-quarter inflation print.
Australian unemployment remained steady despite a steady cooling in labor growth this year, while economic growth was strong in the second quarter. But the economy still faces risks from trade disruptions and sluggish global commodity demand, which the RBA has repeatedly noted.
ANZ analysts said they expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged in September, with a 25 basis point cut appearing more likely in November. They expect Bullock to maintain the RBA’s data-driven stance on future easing, but warned that recent increases in inflation could draw a more hawkish stance from the RBA governor.
ANZ’s “Big Four” peers– Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and NAB– also expect the RBA to leave rates unchanged in September, although they have differing stances on a November cut.
Source :
https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/rba-preview-sept-rates-on-hold-amid-sticky-inflation-bullock-comments-awaited-4259415
